The forecast is consistent with bitcoin's tendency to chalk out sharp gains in the months after the mining reward halves. The fourth halving is due early next year.
Crypto services provider Matrixport, one of the few firms to turn bullish on bitcoin (BTC) late last year, now expects the leading cryptocurrency to rally to as high as $125,000 by the end of 2024.
The forecast is based on data that show a multimonth bull market comprising a meteoric surge in market value unfolds once prices confirm the end of a bear market, which they do by setting a 12-month high for the first time in at least a year.
That signal was triggered late last month after prices topped $31,000, the highest since June 2022. Previous signals occurred in August 2012, December 2015, May 2019 and August 2020, with prices rallying in the following years.
"On June 22, 2023, bitcoin made a new one-year high, marking the first time in a year. This signal has historically indicated the end of bear markets and the start of new crypto bull markets," Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy at Matrixport, said in a report shared with CoinDesk.
"If history is any guide, bitcoin prices could climb by +123% over twelve months and by +310% over eighteen months – based on the average return of the signals triggered in 2015, 2019 and 2020. That would lift prices to $65,539 in twelve months and $125,731 over eighteen months," Thielen added.
Thielen ignored the 2012 signal and the subsequent 5,285% price rise in 2013, calling it an "epic, out-of-proportion" bull market.
Bitcoin changed hands near $30,700 at press time, CoinDesk data show.
Matrixport's view is consistent with bitcoin's tendency to chalk out sharp uptrends in the 12-18 months after the mining reward halves. The fourth halving, which will cut the new coins paid per block to 3.25 BTC from 6.5 BTC, is set to happen in March/April next year.